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"I will remain in this office by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer remarked, adding that if our discussion went well, he might invite us into his official residence for a follow-up conversation in 2026.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for those in the top job. Shortly before our chat started, Starmer had been in calls with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to decipher precisely had occurred in Venezuela, where his big ally, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

When the discussion, which was far more extended than usual, had finished, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

But as the year starts, Sir Keir seems to have had something of a reboot. Perhaps even just a little a rest with loved ones at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This seemed to have left him in a more positive mood than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a terrible annus horribilis for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters being unrealistic if they believe his political fate are set to turn around?

Internal Doubts

The harsh reality for the leader is that many of his fellow MPs believe he's underperforming at his job. Some of them would sooner gamble and get him out sooner rather than later.

But Starmer was dismissing such talk when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he stated he'd be "judged at the general election", arguing nobody would take his term from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 may be for Labour to switch its leader.

"We are in the fight of our times and I plan to lead us," he affirmed.

The Spring Test

The problem for the PM is that he will be assessed far sooner than then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to protest, maybe excessively, that they are about who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

True – to some extent. But although he may be reluctant to admit it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no situation under which he would resign, should one of his MPs contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be disastrous for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to rationalise his low poll ratings by saying the public was understandably anxious for things to get better. He sought to persuade me, and the public, that the coming months would be a change.

The economy would strengthen despite rising unemployment, he said, when strategies the government implemented during their initial rocky year began to take effect.

• He committed to empty asylum hotels before the current target date of 2029, but he did not set a new date on that.
• He said too, with the proviso that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's comprehensive invasion.
• He revealed for the first time that Western partners were now considering how to integrate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to safeguard a possible peace.

His central argument is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have spoken with more energy than observed from him for a while – less tense, perhaps, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering pressure from many directions for a more decisive approach, with increased political direction, more urgency, more pace and more urgency, his arguments were well-known ones.

Given that he is in considerable political peril, is a different approach required a different script?

No government, and certainly not one that has been unpopular for many months, has everything its own way.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not only because governing is hard, but because he and his colleagues have made mistakes, even in the last few weeks.

Regrets and Risks

The PM told me that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to see the return of the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when past remarks he'd made in the past – including calls for Zionists and police to be killed – resurfaced.

Starmer attributed it to "the process" for failing to identify what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting clear political perils as the year progresses. His close relationship with the US president acquires a new jeopardy after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be at ease with such action seems unlikely.

International Law and Brexit

He asserted he was a "career-long advocate of international law" but we "just haven't got the complete details at the moment".

Some demanded criticise the action before we spoke. And the administration is likely to face more pressure to give an definitive view in Parliament in the near future.

There has also consistently been bubbling tension in the Labour party to reverse or renegotiate some of the consequences of Brexit.

The PM denies he's pursuing that, but his new firmer plan to move closer with the EU's single market – the vast economic European trading zone – will likely elicit protests that he is breaking his pledge never to try to reverse the results that followed Brexit.

A move to integrate into more of the single market will delight some on his own side, but it is prime ammunition for Reform and the Conservatives to